Panarin Predicts the End

Doomsday prophecies seem to be the trend these days. The world ending in 2012, global warming becoming irreversible if progress isn't made by 2025 thus melting the polar icecaps and eventually resulting in the end of the world, my sister saying that the world will end in 2060 according to some weird formula she came up with herself. In any case, of all of these outrageous claims, I found one particular doomsday prophecy particularly outrageous. A Russian professor, Professor Игорь Панарин (Igor Panarin) has been predicting the "moral and economic collapse" of the United States for the past decade or so. He predicts that the United States as we know it today will be obsolete by 2010. As if things aren't bad enough for America already, what with the recession, the financial crisis, banking crisis, housing market crash, the falling dollar, and now... this? Seriously???

Panarin, an ex-KGB analyst, is now allegedly spreading his outlandish prophecy across the Russian media, getting interviews, even giving lectures on what he claims is a hypothesis based on cold, hard facts. What ultimately leads the U.S. to disintegration? According to Panarin, a combination of economic decline, mass immigration, moral and social degradation will in turn trigger a second American civil war and the complete demise of the dollar. The end result? The break-up of the United States by mid-2010 into some 6-odd regions. Of course, Panarin couldn't stop and leave it at that. Not only would the U.S. break up, but these sub-regions would be controlled or absorbed completely by foreign powers.

Sound crazy enough? I personally think this is Panarin's own way of "getting back" at the U.S. and the West in general and their displays of schadenfreude at the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. The U.S. and the West watched the Soviet Union collapse with a sort of surprised satisfaction as communist dictatorial rule ended in ultimate failure. Is this Panarin's way of saying "it's going to happen to you too", even though it's not? What surprised me particularly was that his so-called "hypothesis" is actually somewhat popular in Russia. So maybe it's true that the Kremlin in Russia harbors some anti-American sentiments? Even though his theory is far-fetched to outright ridiculous, Mr. Panarin isn't regarded as some lunatic in his home Russia. In fact, he's the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats and he's also one of the talking heads on Russian (state-run) TV whenever US-Russian relations are the issue.

What exactly he hypothesizes can be summed up in this map:
* "The California Republic" comprised of the West Coast and states west of the Rockies would be taken over by China or fall under Chinese influence.
* "The Central North-American Republic" made up of the Midwestern/North central states would be absorbed by Canada or controlled by Canada.
* "Atlantic America", my home region, consisting of much of the Atlantic coastal states, would eventually attempt to join the European Union
* "The Texas Republic", which is the "Tex-Mex" area as well as a handful of other southern states would fall to Mexico or under Mexican influence.
* Alaska (or Аляска) would return to Russian possession
* Hawaii would be taken by Japan or China

China having control over Hollywood? Unlikely, since California is one of the richest American states and would be in the top 20 richest countries on its own. The Canadian Maple Leaf flag flying at the Gateway Arch in Missouri? Hardly imaginable. A European Union Institute residing in the heart of New York City or Washington, D.C.? Impossible. Mexico taking over the die-hard patriotic state of Texas? Not without a horrific massacre of some sort. Ok, Sarah Palin and the citizens dumb enough to elect her can go to Russia and as for Hawaii going to Japan or China? I doubt it, but maybe that's not as impossible as Canada taking over a huge chunk of the U.S.

While, as an American myself, I found Panarin's claims blasphemous, he refers to political scientist Emmanuel Todd, who predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976. “People laughed at him" [too], he implies a similar vindication as he's quoted saying at an interview for this Wall Street Journal article. If you really think about it though, you can't even begin to compare the break-up of the Soviet Union with a possible break-up of the U.S. The Soviet Union wasn't really a voluntarily united country. It was transitioned into a Union from its original Imperial form (The Russian Empire conquered many foreign regions, obviously not a union with their consent). So a lot of people were discontent and there were several preexisting nationalities already within the Soviet Union. Can you really compare an Azerbaijani and Uzbek in the ex-Soviet Union and make similar comparisons to a Californian and a Wisconsinite? I don't think so, because in times of crisis, as 9/11 events showed us, Americans stand together and patriotism is rekindled. There is no way that could happen. Not only that, but his arguments are founded on untrue "facts". Economic decline and during the "Great Depression" didn't do anything to question U.S. unity. Our current "crisis" isn't nearly as bad as the media tries to scare us into thinking. Mass immigration? What mass immigration? U.S. immigration levels have been relatively stable and it is only recently that our immigration levels are matching that of the 1800s. As for moral degradation and the falling dollar, well, that's something we'll have to live with and work through, but it certainly won't cause another civil war.

Oh, I guess I should add that Panarin does try to buffer his claims with some insurance by saying that this is only 50% likely to happen. He adds that if in fact it did, it would be great - for Russia, that is. What I think he's missing out is, yeah, sure, even if Russia gets back its precious Аляска, the break-up of the U.S. would actually be more detrimental to Russia than it is beneficial, since the U.S. is one of Russia's most important trading partners, which closely ties the two countries together economically. End result: Russia would experience some serious economic turmoil of its own if the U.S. were to break up.

This case is similar to the apocalyptic prophecies of religious eschatologists and we can only wait to discuss and laugh about this next year, in November 2010. If President Obama is still the president of the U.S., I'm sure Panarin will retreat with his tail behind his legs and no longer make such rash proclamations. Of course, I'm confident to say that his prophecy is wrong. If it turns out to be true, then I guess he can put his foot in my mouth.

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